Most predictions of the future of IT are based on the extrapolation of technological capability or the hopeful self-interest of IT specialists. Predicting the future based on profitability and the self-interest of the majority provides a more realistic view.
I've been doing some research on the future of IT. There are so many conflicting opinions that the vast majority must be wrong. In such a climate, I can confidently make my contribution.
To an extent, predicting the future based on an extrapolation of technological capability is valid. Standards will evolve. Networks will get faster. Storage will get cheaper. Computer attacks and defence will get more sophisticated.
But the technologists don't limit their vision to the technology. They paint a picture of businesses run by intelligent computer systems, of whole industries optimised by automated contracts. Mobile phones will record our entire lives. Refrigerators will negotiate the price of fish on our behalf.
Some parts of these visions might come true. But not all of them. Invention is not necessarily the mother of necessity.
A lot of future predictions are based on hopeful self-interest. The "tide will turn" and the telecoms industry will regenerate. Outsourcing will reverse. Companies will see the value in enterprise architecture. You can almost hear the word "please".
However, the main forces dictating the future will not be technological possibility and the self-interest of the few, but profitability and the self-interest of the many.
On average, IT now takes up more than 50% of companys' capital budgets. In many companies IT spend is greater than profit. There are huge rewards for companies that can reduce this cost.
Cost can be reduced by only using IT where IT will provide value. This means seeing IT as simple automation, not magical business transformation. It means aligning IT closely to the organisation, and moving away from centralised, disassociated IT systems.
People will want IT that is relevant and under their control. They won't want IT specialists in charge. Businesses will want to reshape themselves at will, taking their IT with them, not having to wait to be "lead" by IT.
Based on this, I predict three future trends:
Over the next few weeks I will explore the drivers behind and details of these potential futures. I welcome your views on these visions of the future.